Book Manuscript
"Selecting Success: Recruitment and Insurgent Effectiveness in Civil Wars" Across civil wars both past and present, insurgent groups have demonstrated varying abilities to perform effectively as armed organizations. With the rise and persistence of ISIS in Syria and Iraq and continued resurgence of the Taliban in Afghanistan, understanding what drives this variation has become increasingly important for both academics and policymakers alike. Yet existing lines of conventional thought and academic scholarship, with their focus on invariant factors or end-of-conflict outcomes, tell us little about what might account for the differences in such effectiveness within conflicts. To address this gap, I develop a theoretical framework to both measure and explain group-specific effectiveness across the possible stages of an insurgency, focusing on insurgent recruitment practices as the driving factor behind variation in performance. I argue that insurgent groups which select, induct, train, and socialize recruits in a consistent and comprehensive manner throughout their areas of operation are better able to execute the key tasks required for operating in civil war, and consequently are more likely to be effective across the potential stages of insurgency. To capture insurgent effectiveness during conflicts, I utilize task-based measures, group-specific casualty counts, and territorial control. I test this theoretical framework using micro-comparative case studies of insurgent performance in the conflict in Jordan (1968-1971), drawing on 105 semi-structured interviews conducted in Arabic with ex-combatants/observers and archival research in Jordan, Lebanon, and the United States. For external validity, I conduct additional case studies of groups in both Eritrea (1961-1991) and the Dhofar Rebellion in Oman (1964-1975). The findings contribute to scholarship on civil wars, non-state actors, and military effectiveness, while also informing counterinsurgency and conflict management efforts. Working Papers "Ideology and Rebel Governance in Civil Wars: Armed Group Rule in Syria and Eritrea" (Under Review) "Balancing the Books: How Militant Organizations Compensate for Weaknesses with Alliances" (with Philip B.K. Potter) "Reexamining Civil War Onset in the Middle East and North Africa" (with Stathis Kalyvas) "Insurgent Effectiveness in Civil Wars: Evidence from Jordan and Syria" |
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